Will Biden’s Decision To Leave the Race Change Voter Turnout?

For the first time since he bowed out of the 2024 presidential campaign, Joe Biden addressed the nation Wednesday evening, explaining – albeit obliquely – to the American people his reasoning.

He nodded to concerns about his age, 81, which became overwhelming after the June 27 debate, and several halting public appearances since then highlighted cognitive lapses and rogue trains of thought.

“I’ve decided the best way forward is to pass the torch to a new generation. It’s the best way to unite our nation,” Biden said. “I know there was a time and a place for long years of experience in public life. There’s also a time and a place for new voices, fresh voices, yes, younger voices. And that time and place is now.”

“I believe my record as president, my leadership in the world, my vision for America’s future, all merited a second term,” Biden added. “But nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition.”

Biden never mentioned former President Donald Trump by name, but reiterated the habitual Democratic Party notion that the future of American democracy is at stake.

The president mentioned his second hand, Kamala Harris, only once, saying that Harris is “capable” and has “been an incredible partner to me and a leader for our country.” 

Most Americans agree that it is time for the president to go. A recent NPR/PBS/Marist poll showed that 87% of American adults think Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race was “the right thing to do.” Support for Biden’s choice transcends party identification: 87% of Democrats, 87% of Republicans, and 90% of independents all believe Biden made the right decision.

Biden’s decision to leave the race may change voter turnout, if polls are any indication. When citizens were asked whether Biden dropping out of the race makes them more likely to vote in November, 35% of Americans said yes. Six in 10 Americans (59%) said it makes no impact on whether they will vote, and 6% said Biden dropping out makes them less likely to vote for president.

Democrats, in particular, say they are more likely to turn out to the polls in November now that Biden has dropped out of the race. Nearly half of all Democrats polled (46%) said Biden’s decision to leave the race makes them more likely to vote in November, proving that the party was not pleased with the idea of Biden leading their ticket. 

A majority (65%) of Democratic voters are also more confident in their ability to beat Trump in November now that Biden has left the race. One in five Republicans (21%) think Democrats are more likely to win in November, while 36% believe their chances of winning have now decreased since Biden stepped down. Twenty percent of Democrats think their chances are worse now that Biden is no longer at the top of the ticket.

Polls suggest that Democrats may have a slightly better chance of winning in November now that Biden is no longer running for reelection. Trump leads Harris by 2.1 points in the RCP Average, a tighter race than the Trump-Biden match-up. And Harris is polling better than Biden was in recent swing state polls, though she still trails in most battleground states.

Biden acknowledged Wednesday what most of the country had known for quite some time: he was not their ticket to a landslide victory. Harris won’t have a clear path to the White House either – but her success looks more plausible than his ever did.