Will the Second Assassination Attempt Affect 2024 Election?

On Sunday, another assassination attempt was made on former President Trump’s life, the second in two months. This time, the Secret Service was able to thwart the attempt before the attacker was able to shoot the former president. With less than 50 days until the election, a key consideration is how this assassination attempt might affect the election.

At the time of the first attempt on Trump, Joe Biden was still the Democratic nominee; it was the weekend before the RNC, and Trump hadn’t yet picked his vice-presidential nominee, J.D. Vance. Despite the uncertainty, after the July 13 attempt, Trump’s odds of winning shot up, according to betting markets. On July 12, Trump had a 56.3% chance of winning according to the RCP Betting Odds Average, and by July 15, it had jumped to 65.5%, a 9% increase.

This time, the betting odds jump appears less extreme. On Saturday, Sept. 14, before the second attempt, Harris led Trump by 3.9 points, 51.3% to 47.4%, but by Monday, that lead had decreased to 3.1 points. Some betting sites, such as PredictIt, saw no change, while Polymarket recorded a slight 1 to 2-point shift in Trump’s favor.

In terms of polling after the first assassination attempt, it's hard to pinpoint the effect, due to the RNC and Vance's VP announcement, followed by Biden dropping out of the race just over a week later. At the time of the first assassination, Trump was 2.9 points ahead of Biden, and a week later when Biden withdrew from the race, he was ahead 3.1 points, only a small change. This evidence suggests that unlike the first attempt, which had a visceral impact due to the videos and images of Trump right after the assassin’s bullet grazed his ear, this latest attempt appears less impactful on the election.

Nevertheless, Trump and his campaign again attributed some blame for both assassination attempts to the rhetoric used by Democrats. After the latest attempt, the Trump campaign released a statement citing remarks from Harris, Biden, and other influential Democrats using “increasingly incendiary rhetoric against President Trump.” The campaign said, “This psycho was egged on by the rhetoric and lies from Kamala Harris, Democrats, and their Fake News allies for years.” The statement included quotes from Biden, such as “It's time to put Trump in a bullseye,” and Harris’ remark that “Trump is a threat to our democracy and fundamental freedoms.”

Since the attack, prominent Democrats have reiterated their opposition to political violence and expressed relief that Trump is safe. “I have been briefed on reports of gunshots fired near former President Trump and his property in Florida, and I am glad he is safe. Violence has no place in America,” Harris posted on X on Sunday.

Polls following the first assassination attempt showed that voters tended to blame the opposing political party for the incident. A YouGov poll conducted July 17-20 found that 51% of Republicans believed Joe Biden and Democrats were “very responsible” for the attempt on Trump’s life. Meanwhile, 47% of Democrats believed Donald Trump and Republicans were “very responsible.” Left-leaning media were also blamed by 49% of Republicans, while 29% of Democrats blamed right-leaning media. This indicates that while the attempt might have only a small effect on the election, polarization and partisan blame will likely continue to climb.