Will There Be a Labour Landslide in UK on July 4?

The left-leaning Labour Party is expected to regain power in the United Kingdom for the first time since 2010. The U.K. is holding its general election on July 4, and the ruling Conservative Party is down 21 points in the polls. Our friends across the pond are anticipating a record-breaking Labour landslide.

Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised the world (and members of his own party) when he announced on May 22 that there would be a general election in July. October or November had previously been thought more likely for an election date, as U.K. law required him to call the election before the end of the year.

Given the Tories’ low standing in the pools, many observers wondered why Sunak called an early election, which he would almost certainly lose. It is assumed that the prime minister was trying to capitalize on the relatively good news he had in May when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updated the U.K.’s growth forecast and inflation finally dropped.

Sunak has focused on inflation figures over the past month of campaigning, framing the narrative as one of economic recovery after a COVID-induced cost of living crisis. Having inherited a stagnant economy, Sunak argued that the fall in inflation was “proof that the plan and priorities” he had set out were working.

The U.K. public seems unconvinced. The Economist produced a multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) that suggests Labour is on track to win 465 of the 632 seats in England, Scotland, and Wales, giving it the biggest majority since World War II. The Conservative Party, which won 365 seats in 2019, is predicted in The Economist model to slump to 76 seats, the fewest in its history.

A large share of the Conservative base is abandoning the party for Reform UK, a populist right-wing party whose support has swelled since Nigel Farage, a leader of the successful and controversial Brexit movement, announced that he would stand for Parliament.

Farage helped precipitate the 2019 Tory landslide victory by deciding not to stand candidates against sitting Conservative MPs. This time around, his plan is different. When asked by a journalist if he wanted to merge Reform with the Conservatives, he replied: “More like a takeover, dear boy.” A recent MRP poll shows Reform UK is now expected to win 18 seats and a higher vote share than the Conservatives.

Tories are also polling poorly in races where the Liberal Democrats are their primary opposition: the latter party is expected to win 52 seats, the highest number since 2010.

In a debate on Wednesday, Labour leader and likely future Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the election was an opportunity for the country to “turn the page” on 14 years of Conservative government dominated by Brexit and party infighting.

“Give the Tories five more years and things will only get worse. Britain deserves better than that,” Starmer said.