2010 California Governor - Whitman vs. Brown

10/26/10 -- With less than a week to go, Whitman has an awful lot of ground to make up here.  Some of these pollsters may well be overstating the number of Democrats in the electorate, but even after taking that into account, Whitman is still trailing.

10/20/10 -- Republican polling firm Wilson Research sees a slight lead for Republican Meg Whitman.  But every other pollster has seen a slight Democratic lead since mid-September.

10/4/10 -- The first poll taken in the aftermath of the revelation that Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman had hired an illegal immigrant as a housekeeper shows that she may be taking on water.  Rasmussen Reports shows Whitman trailing former Governor Jerry Brown 49 percent to 44 percent. 

The previous Rasmussen poll had shown Brown up by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent.  It is important to note that this movement is well within the poll's error margin, so we should wait to see if other pollsters show similar movement before drawing any hard and fast conclusions.  

----------Race Preview---------

California gubernatorial politics are enigmatic. Although Democrats have had a massive registration advantage in California since the 1930s, they’ve only occupied the Governor’s mansion for 24 of the last 80 years. The last Democratic governorship came to a particularly inglorious end, as Gray Davis was recalled from office less than a year after winning re-election to a second term.

Davis was replaced by Republican actor and education activist Arnold Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger has had a tumultuous two terms, shifting to the left after being rebuked by voters on several cherished ballot initiatives. He leaves office with approval ratings hovering in the twenties and thirties, which would make a same-party succession nearly impossible in a conventional year.

But 2010 is not shaping up to be a normal year. Republicans have nominated Meg Whitman, the former CEO of eBay, while the Democrats have nominated former Governor Jerry Brown, a fixture in California politics who was first elected statewide in 1970. The fundamentals of the state favor Brown, but the "change factor" favors Whitman, making this a great race to watch.