2010 Florida Governor - Scott vs. Sink

11/2/10, 11:13am -- Sunshine State News/VSS final poll taken Sunday-Monday has Scott ahead by four points which has moved Scott ahead by 1.2% in the RCP Average.

11/2/10, 6:40am -- This race is tight as it can be, all tied up heading into Election Day.  Given the GOP's large edge in early voting, we think that Scott has the slightest of edges here.  But this really could go either way.

10/26/10 -- Once again, the lead has changed hands, and Rick Scott has a slim lead.  Sink still has plenty of time to turn this around, though, and this is anyone's game right now.

10/20/10 -- For weeks, the leads in the polls have gone back-and-forth between Alex Sink and Rick Scott.  Sink probably has a bit of a lead as of this writing, but this remains anybody's game.

10/11/10 -- The polls are beginning to move again in Sink's direction.  While Rasmussen Reports still shows Scott at 50 percent of the vote, Mason-Dixon sees Scott trailing 44 percent to 40 percent.  The Mason-Dixon polling should be of particular concern to Scott supporters, because they are also finding Marco Rubio up 15 in the Senate race -- a nearly 20 points gap between Republicans in the races.  It is worth noting that even Mason Dixon's poll shows movement toward Scott from their earlier poll that showed Scott down 7, but the overall picture of the race is one that is tightening.

10/9/10 -- There's an interesting story behind Scott's improving poll numbers.  Sink's numbers have actually been quite stable. Likely voter polls have had her around the mid-40s percent since mid-August. Scott's numbers, on the other hand, have moved from the low 40s to where they are now, approaching 50.

I suspect that since Sink did not have major primary opposition, as Scott did, she did not have any problems consolidating the support of her base at the outset. Scott, however, probably had to win over some McCollum voters. The latest Quinnipiac poll suggests that both candidates are now at parity, with about 87 percent of their respective parties voting for them. This stands in contrast with a mid-August PPP (D) poll showing Scott receiving only 57 percent of the Republican vote, while Sink received 72 percent of the Democratic vote. The comparison isn't perfect, since independent Bud Chiles was in the race at the time, but Chiles seems to have drawn Republicans and Democrats to his cause almost equally.

----------Race Preview---------

Were it not for the Florida Senate race, the Florida Governor's race would probably win the nod for the strangest election of 2010. When popular Governor Charlie Crist decided to run for the Senate, it set off a stampede of aspirants for the Governor's mansion. On the Democratic side, State CFO Alex Sink decided to forego a Senate race for a shot at the top spot in the state, and the state's establishment quickly coalesced around her.

Attorney General Bill McCollum was the Republican pick. Having lost the 2000 Senate race to Bill Nelson and the 2004 Republican Senate nomination to Mel Martinez, he was initially viewed skeptically by many pundits. But polls showed him jumping into a lead over Sink. As with the Senate race, the Republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief.

Enter Rick Scott. The millionaire health care executive jumped into the race on April 9, shortly before the filing deadline. He spent over $5 million, and used that to jump into the lead over McCollum. McCollum fired back, pointing to criminal investigations into Columbia/HCA, the company Scott used to head. In the end, Scott topped McCollum by three points in the primary.

Then, popular Governor Lawton Chiles' son entered the race as an independent. The initial consensus was that he would doom Sink's candidacy. Still, it was unclear that he would drain votes from the Democrat. He withdrew in early September and threw his support behind Sink.

Sink led Scott in most polls taken immediately post-primary. But Scott had been the subject of a barrage of negative advertisements from McCollum and may have room for growth. Florida is still a Republican-leaning state in a neutral year, and this is anything but a neutral year; Scott's weaknesses as a candidate may yet be balanced out by the GOP environment.