2014 Georgia Senate - Perdue vs. Nunn

11/3/14 -- Most signs here point to a runoff, but not all of them. What is somewhat surprising is that Perdue is the candidate who seems to be brushing against the runoff door, while Nunn's numbers are in free fall. If we get to a runoff situation, Perdue's election isn't assured, but it is likely.

10/28/14 -- SurveyUSA and Landmark were previously two of Perdue's worst polls, so there may be some movement back toward the Republican candidate. Of course, the question is still whether either candidate can get to 50 percent plus one, something none of the polls are suggesting.

10/17/14 -- This is one of the few races in the country to break heavily toward Democrats. Perdue certainly hasn’t helped himself with his comments about outsourcing, especially in rural Georgia. The question here is whether Obama’s job approval ultimately acts as an anchor on Nunn, and more importantly, whether she can get to the 50 percent needed to avoid a runoff.

10/7/14 -- Perdue maintains a lead, but comments he made about outsourcing may change the dynamics of this race. Stay tuned . . .

9/23/14 -- The race is moving away from Nunn, as people tune in and Georgia reverts to its fundamentals. Even Landmark, which has steadily shown a Nunn advantage, finds voters moving toward Perdue.

9/7/14 -- Recent polls show a tightening in this race, but Nunn's challenge is nevertheless finding a coalition in Georgia to get up around 50 percent.

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In 2002, Georgia snapped. The state had been among the last in the South to cling to its Democratic roots: Bill Clinton carried Georgia in 1992, and a coalition of African-Americans and rural whites had kept the Democrats in control of the governor’s mansion, the legislature and even a Senate seat. All of that changed in 2002, as rural whites revolted, throwing out the Democratic governor, senator, and (two years later) the legislature. Two years later, Republican Johnny Isakson rolled to a 58 percent-40 percent win over Congresswoman Denise Majette. Democrats enjoyed a reasonably close race in the 2008 general election, but fell badly short in the runoff necessitated when neither Saxby Chambliss nor Jim Martin topped 50 percent.

Defense Impacts: A political neophyte battles the daughter of a former Senate Armed Services Committee chairman in one of the most defense-heavy states.

More on this race at RealClearDefense

Democrats are excited about Michelle Nunn’s chances of ending the party’s 14-year dry spell in the Senate, and changing demographics may indeed help the party of Jackson regain its footing here. But this is still a Republican state, and even with massive black turnout in 2008, Democrats couldn’t put the Senate seat away. This race starts out close, with Nunn and Perdue trading leads in the polls, but given the environment and the Republican lean of the state, Perdue probably starts with an edge.