A ‘2008 Feeling’ About North Carolina

Of the seven states considered true “battlegrounds” in 2024, only one went red in both 2016 and 2020: North Carolina. Now, Vice President Kamala Harris will attempt to become just the third Democrat since 1968 to win the Tar Heel State.

Two recent polls to come out of North Carolina show Harris leading former President Donald Trump, if only slightly. Last week’s poll from High Point/Survey USA showed that 46% of North Carolinians would vote for Harris if the election were held today, while 45% would vote for Trump, giving Harris a razor-thin edge. Nine percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else or were undecided.

Another recent survey to come out of North Carolina was from NY Times/Siena College and showed that 49% of likely voters would cast a ballot for Harris if the election were held today, while 47% of respondents would vote for Trump, upping Harris’ margin to a slim 2 points. Four percent of respondents said they “didn’t know” or refused to answer. A Fox News survey released this week showed that 50% of North Carolinians would vote for Trump if the election were held today, while 49% would vote for Harris.

Harris is down 0.9 points in the North Carolina RCP Average, which consists of seven polls since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in late July. Harris has made considerable gains in support since that fateful day; Trump led Biden by over 5 points in some surveys of North Carolina voters.

The Tar Heel State has become a target for both the Trump and Harris campaigns: Since Harris ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket, the rivals have made a combined four campaign stops in North Carolina. Trump stumped in Charlotte on July 24, Asheville on Aug. 14, and Asheboro on Aug. 21, while Harris unveiled her economic vision in Raleigh on Aug. 16.

A scheduled Aug. 8 event in Raleigh that was to include Harris’ running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was canceled due to Tropical Storm Debby, as were stops in Raleigh and Oakboro for Republican vice-presidential nominee Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance.

North Carolina’s 16 electoral votes – the eighth most of any U.S. state – have gone to Republican candidates all but twice since 1968. Barack Obama won the Tar Heel vote by just 14,000 votes or 0.3 points in 2008, and Jimmy Carter won by a healthy 11.1 points in 1976. Trump landed a win against Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a margin of 3.5, and while Biden narrowed Trump’s lead to 1.3 points, the Republican candidate still came out on top in 2020.

Things are looking up for Democrats in North Carolina, however, as recent weeks have seen a surge in support and donations for Attorney General Josh Stein over his Republican rival Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in the North Carolina gubernatorial race. The High Point/Survey USA poll showed Stein up 14 points while the NY Times/Siena College poll put Stein ahead by 10 points. The Fox News poll from this week showed Stein up 11 points. Stein was polling with a 5- or 6-point lead at the beginning of August, and now has an 9.2-point lead in the RCP Average.

Stein has seen success highlighting some of Robinson’s more provocative comments, such as referring to homosexuality and “transgenderism” as “filth” and calling abortion “murder” and “genocide.” It is partly due to Stein’s recent gains – election forecaster Sabato is now saying the race for governor “leans Democrat” – that North Carolina is back in play for Harris when just weeks ago it was thought to be out of reach.

Last week, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D) – who is leaving office as a term-limited official – predicted an impressive turnout in November from voters whom he said would be motivated to prevent “extreme” right-wing candidates from winning office.

“I think there’s going to be a rising up that will end up helping Vice President Harris in this race, from some people who may not have gone to the polls even in a presidential year,” Cooper said at an event at the Democratic National Convention. “I have a 2008 feeling about North Carolina.”