Are Trump’s Tariffs Popular?

Over the past week, President-elect Donald Trump has proposed a series of potential tariffs aimed at BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others within the alliance – along with Mexico and Canada. These measures are tied to demands for specific policy changes from the targeted nations. While distinct from the trade policies he enacted during his first term and campaigned on this year, tariffs remain one of Trump’s most closely contested policies.

In post-election polls from The Economist/YouGov, respondents were asked for their opinions about different types of tariffs Trump talked about enacting on the campaign trail. In a poll conducted from Nov. 17-19 with 1,595 adult citizens, they found that a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China has 37% support and 42% opposition, with only 28% support among independents. A general 10% tariff on imported goods from all countries had slightly more approval, with 42% support and 39% opposed, but it was still closely contested.

These generic tariffs that Trump ran on would serve two main purposes. One is the income that the tariffs bring in, which, if the current amount of imports remained the same, would equate to around $600 billion a year in revenue for the U.S. government. The actual number would likely be lower, however, as trade would likely decrease if tariffs were enacted.

The other purpose is to make it easier to manufacture goods in the United States. If the prices of foreign goods go up, it becomes easier for companies to produce goods domestically, as they are cheaper compared to foreign goods with tariffs. This can also help with national security, as it reduces reliance on foreign countries for essential goods.

The latest announced tariffs aren’t primarily concerned with these two economic justifications for tariffs, Trump says. The first potential tariff Trump announced was a 25% tariff on all products coming from Canada and Mexico until “Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country.” This was coupled with an announcement of a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods until China stops sending fentanyl to the U.S., “mostly through Mexico.” In the post where he announced the tariff, Trump said Canada and Mexico have the “absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem.”

Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum have since spoken with the president-elect. Trudeau visited Mar-a-Lago this week, and Sheinbaum called him on Wednesday. While the exact contents of both conversations are contested, both leaders seem open to reducing immigration and drug flow over their borders to avoid the tariffs. Sheinbaum clarified on X, “We reiterate that Mexico's position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples.”

Another potential tariff floated is on BRICS countries if they don’t commit to keeping the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency and refrain from creating a new BRICS currency. Trump wrote on Wednesday that if these countries don’t commit to staying on the dollar, they will face “100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”

Both the tariffs on BRICS countries and Canada, Mexico, and China are not primarily concerned with economic arguments for tariffs. Instead, they are points of leverage Trump is attempting to use to push other policies he views as being in the U.S.’ best interest.

However, while tariffs have the dual benefits of encouraging domestic manufacturing and supporting foreign policy goals, they also come at a cost: higher prices for goods. Added tariffs increase the price of goods produced abroad, which can contribute to inflation.

Like pre-election polls, in the latest Economist poll, inflation and prices were rated the “most important issue” by 24%, followed by “jobs and the economy” and healthcare. While the tariffs announced by Trump may be limited in duration if foreign nations comply with his requests, applying a 25% tariff to Canada and Mexico or a 100% tariff on China, India, or Brazil could cause the prices of imported goods to spike considerably.