Chicago Poll: 80% Disapprove of Mayor Johnson, Crime Top Issue

In January 2023, shortly before the February Chicago mayoral elections, former Mayor Lori Lightfoot had a dismal 22% approval rating. Current Mayor Brandon Johnson’s approval has now sunk even lower, to only 6.6% in the latest poll, as issues such as rising crime concern residents of the Windy City.

In the latest poll from M3 Strategies, which surveyed 696 likely Chicago voters Feb. 20-21, 67% said that crime was one of the top three issues facing Chicago, followed by high taxes at 54% and inflation at 41%. Closer to the bottom were issues considered more stereotypically liberal, such as racism at 11%, reproductive freedoms at 4%, and LGBTQ+ rights at 3% – despite 70% of respondents saying they voted for Kamala Harris and only 18% saying they voted for Trump.

The concern with crime is likely due to higher crime rates in recent years. While murders in Chicago fell 29% from 2021 to 2024, other types of crime increased sharply. From 2021 to 2024, robbery increased 16%, burglary increased 15%, theft increased 57%, and motor vehicle theft increased 106%. Overall, the number of seven major felony offenses (murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, grand larceny and grand larceny of a motor vehicle) committed was up 44% from 2021 to 2024.

Similarly, in New York City, the number of seven major felony offenses was up 20.6% in 2024 compared to 2021 and up 29.2% compared to 2018. Despite the FBI Uniform Crime Report indicating that crime nationwide is trending down post-pandemic, in cities like Chicago and New York it is on the rise both materially and in the public consciousness.

Chicago Mayoral Race

The poll also examined favorability ratings for potential candidates for Chicago mayor in 2027. Of all potential candidates, Mayor Brandon Johnson was the least favored, with 80% unfavorable and 6.6% favorable.

Former Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who was two years into her term and still had positive approval according to a 2021 Emerson College poll – where she received 48% approval and 39% disapproval – ultimately lost her reelection bid in 2023 when her approval rating fell to 22% and 54% unfavorable.

After Lightfoot was eliminated from the race in the first round, Johnson narrowly beat Paul Vallas, 52.16% to 47.84%, in the runoff between the two candidates, despite Vallas receiving more votes in the first round.

Looking ahead to the 2027 mayoral vote, Paul Vallas leads, with 27.4% saying they would lean toward him as mayor. Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias came in second at 21%, Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza ranked third at 11.7% and Mayor Johnson placed fourth at 8.2%. None of these candidates has officially declared their candidacy; this poll was only a preliminary inquiry, and other candidates still have plenty of time to make their case.