Civil War Concerns Rise Among Dissatisfied Voters

A recent Rasmussen poll found that 41% of likely U.S. voters believe the country is likely to experience a second civil war within the next five years. A plurality, 49%, think it is not likely, but the increasing belief in a possible civil war is reflective of high levels of dissatisfaction with current political institutions.

The poll, which surveyed 1,105 likely voters April 21-23, found that many think this year's election outcome could affect the likelihood of a civil war. Thirty-seven percent of voters think a civil war is more likely If President Joe Biden wins reelection; 25% think civil war is more likely if former President Donald Trump wins.

Another poll from The Economist/YouGov found that these concerns about civil war coincide with strong political dissatisfaction. The poll of 1,813 U.S. adult citizens May 5-7 found that only 12% approved of Congress' performance, while 61% disapproved and 18% had no opinion. The Supreme Court fared slightly better, with 32% approval and 54% disapproval.

The poll also found that public and elected officials, regardless of political affiliation, are generally viewed more unfavorably than favorably. For instance, Trump was viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 58%; Biden was viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 59%. Vice President Kamala Harris also received unfavorable ratings, with 37% favorable and 54% unfavorable, while House Speaker Mike Johnson was viewed favorably by 24% and unfavorably by 38%.

Both presidential candidates are also perceived as dishonest. According to the Economist poll, 35% of U.S. adults consider Joe Biden "honest and trustworthy," while 49% find him untrustworthy. Trump is seen as even less trustworthy, with only 29% viewing him as trustworthy and 57% as untrustworthy.

The economy is another likely point of contention affecting voter sentiment. When asked whether the economy is improving or worsening, only 18% said it was getting better, while 54% said it was worsening. Additionally, just 24% described the current state of the economy as excellent or good, while 43% described it as poor. Despite low unemployment and positive GDP growth, 39% believe the U.S. is currently in a recession.