Election Day Is Upon Us

The long-awaited day is finally upon us: Voting in the 2024 United States presidential election closes today, Tuesday, Nov. 5. The lead-up to Election Day has been anything but dull: America has seen former President Donald Trump survive two assassination attempts, one of which wounded him; President Joe Biden drop out of the race via a post on X; the antics of quirky third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.; memes galore of Vice President Kamala Harris; and polls so unbearably close that predictions are practically pointless.

After being down in national polls since the ascension of Harris to the top of the Democratic ticket back in July, Trump took a brief lead in the RCP National Average one week before Election Day. Twenty-four hours before Election Day, the national popular vote poll average was tied, 48.5% to 48.5%. Trump leads in the RCP Battleground State Average by 0.8 points, though some swing states show tighter races than others. Trump is up by 2.8 points in Arizona, 0.6 points in Nevada, 0.4 points in Pennsylvania, 1.2 points in North Carolina, and 1.3 points in Georgia. Harris leads Trump by 0.4 points in Wisconsin and by 0.5 points in Michigan.

The latest and final round of polling from The New York Times/Siena College showed a slightly rosier picture for Harris than previously: Harris led by three points in Nevada, two points in North Carolina, two points in Wisconsin, and one point in Georgia, while Trump led by four points in Arizona. The Times poll has the race tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

The RCP Electoral Map – which calls New Hampshire’s four electoral college votes, Minnesota’s 11 votes, and Nebraska CD2’s single vote all toss-ups – predicts a firm 211 electoral votes for Harris, 219 for Trump, with 108 that could go either way. If every RCP average were accurate – which would require the accuracy of pollsters – the map suggests Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, would cross the 270-vote threshold and bring home victory at 287 electoral votes.

But neither camp is sitting comfortably: The final day of the presidential race consisted of a combined 18 campaign stops among the two tickets. Harris started her day in Scranton, Biden’s hometown – though the president was conspicuously absent from the event. She then headed to Allentown, made a stop in Reading, and held rallies in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia.

Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, had an even busier final day of campaigning as he began in St. Paul before heading to neighboring Wisconsin for rallies in La Crosse, Stevens Point, and Milwaukee. Walz and his family finished the day with a rally in Detroit. These final campaign stops underline the importance of the “blue wall” states to the Democrats, who could stand to lose the Sun Belt States if they manage to eke out victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Trump hit three different battlegrounds Monday. He began the day with a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, before heading to Reading and Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, just two hours ahead of Harris’ stops in the same cities. Trump ended his campaign trail with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Also moving around the eastern battlegrounds was J.D. Vance, who held a rally in La Crosse – barely missing Walz – before heading to Flint, Michigan, in the afternoon. Vance’s evening consisted of a rally in Atlanta and a late-night appearance in Newtown, Pennsylvania.

Now, alongside the candidates, we wait.