Exclusive: New Jersey Gubernatorial Republican Primary Poll

Although New Jersey has voted left in recent years, it remains a state with the potential to swing right, especially in off-year elections. With New Jersey's gubernatorial primary set for June and the general election in November, exclusive polling provided to RealClearPolitics shows former candidate Jack Ciattarelli as the frontrunner in favorability among Republican contenders.

The poll, conducted by M3 Strategies with 401 likely Republican voters in New Jersey from Jan. 23-24, found that Ciattarelli had 57% favorability among Republicans, with only 15% unfavorable. Ciattarelli previously ran for New Jersey governor in 2021 but lost by 3.2% to incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. In the 2025 governor’s election, the Republican gubernatorial candidate will face a new opponent, as Murphy has reached the two-consecutive-term limit.

The candidate with the second-highest favorability was Bill Spadea, a radio talk show host, with 35% favorability and 18% unfavorable. Trailing Ciattarelli and Spadea were New Jersey state Sen. Jon Bramnick, with 18% favorability, and former state Sen. Ed Durr, with 15% favorability. Both Bramnick and Durr suffered from much lower name recognition than Spadea and Ciattarelli, meaning that over the coming months, favorability could rise for the candidates as New Jerseyans get to know the field.

One way a candidate could break away from the field is through an endorsement from President Donald Trump. According to the poll, 42% of respondents said they would be “much more likely” to vote for a candidate with Trump’s support, while 27% said they would be somewhat more likely. Only 26% said it makes no difference, and 4% said it would make them less likely to vote for the candidate.

The Republican primary in New Jersey is not just a performative exercise. Despite Trump losing to then-Vice President Kamala Harris by just under six points in the state in the 2024 election, Republicans still see a path to victory in the governor’s race. In 2012, President Barack Obama won New Jersey by 17.8 points against Mitt Romney, yet just one year later, Republican Chris Christie won the gubernatorial election by 22.1 points – a nearly 40-point swing. The 2025 Republican gubernatorial candidate would only need to capture a fraction of that shift to the right.

The poll also examined the top issues for voters. The highest priority among Republicans was high taxes, with 74% listing it among their top three concerns. According to the Tax Foundation, New Jersey ranks among the top 10 states with the highest tax burden. This high tax burden comes from a relatively high graduated income tax, which ranges from 1.4% to 10.75%, a 6.625% sales tax, a 2.08% effective property tax rate, and a 42.4 cents-per-gallon gas tax.

After high taxes, immigration and border security, as well as inflation, were top priorities for 40% and 38% of respondents, respectively. Despite inflation cooling broadly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for the New York-Newark-Jersey City area remained relatively high, increasing by 4.3% from Dec. 2023 to Dec. 2024. Although this is down from the 2022 peak of around 6.8% in the area, 4.3% is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% inflation target.

One battleground issue in the state that had almost unanimous support among Republicans was parental notification regarding conversations between students and faculty on subjects such as gender identity. In May 2023, Hanover public schools in New Jersey passed a policy requiring administrators to notify parents about discussions between children and teachers on child sexuality. However, the state attorney general filed a civil rights complaint the next day to block the policy, and a judge suspended it until a hearing could be scheduled.

This debate has led to legal battles between the state of New Jersey and four school districts that have passed similar policies. In November, an appellate court heard arguments from both sides, and a decision on whether schools must inform parents about discussions between students and faculty regarding gender identity is still pending. According to the poll, 94% of Republicans strongly or somewhat agree that schools have a responsibility to inform parents about such discussions.