Four Northern Swing Counties That Could Decide the Presidency

Polling out of the northerner tier of battleground swing states has been exceedingly close in the last two presidential elections. If that happens again – and the polling indicates it should be -- the election is likely to come down to a handful of strategically located swing counties. Here are four to keep in mind as you watch the election returns roll in Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning:

Waukesha County, Wisconsin: Just to the west of Milwaukee lies this longtime Republican stronghold where voters – and elected officials – appear to be moving more toward the middle in a development that Democrats hope bodes well for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The county is dominated by white, affluent, college-educated voters – Reagan Republicans – many of whom have shied away from the Republican party in the Trump era. The shift from deep red to increasingly purple was exemplified by Waukesha Mayor Shawn Reilly’s recent endorsement of Harris.

“It would be easier for me to stay quiet and vote my conscience privately, but the stakes of this election are so important that I feel compelled to share publicly that I am voting for Kamala Harris, and I encourage other Wisconsinites who care about our country to do the same,” Reilly said in a statement.

Reilly, who was a member of the Republican Party prior to the Jan. 6, 2021, march on the U.S. Capitol, added that he believes Donald Trump poses “a unique danger to American democracy.”

Harris is unlikely to win outright in Waukesha, but if she can capitalize on this kind of antipathy toward for Trump and cut the GOP’s margins in places like Waukesha, she could be the lucky winner of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes. Harris currently leads Trump in the Badger State by 0.2 points in the RCP Average. 

Wayne County, Michigan: If Harris is unlikely to win in Waukesha, Trump definitely won’t win in Wayne County, the seat of metro Detroit. But as Michigan’s most populous county, turnout here is a likely barometer of Harris’ statewide support. 

Flashback to 2016, when Hillary Clinton received tens of thousands of fewer votes in Wayne than Barack Obama did in 2008 and 2012. Trump won Michigan by just 11,000 votes in 2016 – Wayne County residents’ decision to stay at home played a big role in that.

Wayne also has a high concentration of black Americans and Arab Americans, two demographics Democrats are particularly worried about this election cycle. Harris is underperforming among black voters in Michigan: A recent Washington Post poll showed Harris with 63% support to Trump’s 21% support among black voters statewide, where Joe Biden won the Black vote with 94% support in Wayne County in 2020. The Democratic party is also worried about Arab Americans, who have been unhappy with the Biden-Harris administration’s handling of the war in the Middle East.

If voters of color stay home in Wayne County, like they did in 2016, it is hard to see Harris carrying Michigan, where she is currently up 0.4 points on Trump, according to the RCP Average. 

Erie County, Pennsylvania: If Pennsylvania is the most important swing state in 2024, Erie, situated in the northwest corner of the Keystone State, is the most important swing county.

Erie’s demographic makeup – a Democratic city center, deep red rural spots and purple suburbs – means it is a microcosm of Pennsylvania as a whole. Erie is noteworthy for being one of the last bellwether counties: Erie voters have voted the same way as Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992. Only 25 counties nationwide (out of 3,143) voted for Obama, then Trump, then Biden between 2012 and 2020. Erie is one of them, meaning we should all keep an eye on it. In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Harris by 0.7 points in the RCP Average. 

Douglas County, Nebraska: Nebraska isn’t a swing state; it has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968. But Douglas County, as the state’s most populous county, could decide the presidency.

In the early 1990s, Nebraska decided to become one of just two states (the other is Maine) to split its electoral votes. The Cornhusker State now awards one vote to each congressional district, plus two votes to the state’s overall winner. In the eight elections since 1992, Douglas County has gone blue only twice – in 2008 and 2020.

Harris hopes to be just the third Democrat to make Douglas into a ‘blue dot’ alongside the northern ‘blue wall.’ That is, there is a scenario in which Harris could win in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania but lose in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, and the race would be tied in the electoral college. To get to 270, Harris would have to lock down – you guessed it – Douglas County’s single electoral vote.