From Controversy to Popularity: Vance’s Rise in Favorability

When Donald Trump announced J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential pick, many believed Trump, who was polling three points ahead of Joe Biden nationally at the time, was prioritizing an ideological successor over a running mate who could boost his popularity. This perception was partly due to Vance’s initial unfavorable standing in polls. However, through active engagement with both traditional media and newer platforms like podcasts, Vance’s popularity steadily increased, ultimately making him one of the most liked among the four presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

In the first Economist/YouGov poll after Trump announced Vance as his running mate, Vance had only a 34% favorability rating, while 42% viewed him unfavorably. This discrepancy was primarily driven by independents, among whom only 24% viewed him favorably, while 41% viewed him unfavorably.

Over the next month, as Kamala Harris solidified her campaign, announced Tim Walz as her running mate, and spoke at the Democratic National Convention, Vance’s favorability stayed largely unchanged. While specific favorability ratings varied among polls, the three Economist/YouGov surveys conducted in early September showed his net favorability remaining at around -9 points.

During this period, several old clips of Vance resurfaced and were used by critics to attack him. One prominent example was a clip from a 2021 interview with Tucker Carlson, in which Vance described the United States as being run by oligarchs, Democrats, and “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they've made and so they want to make the rest of the country miserable, too.”

Additionally, it came to light that Vance had written the foreword for a book by Kevin Roberts, president of the Heritage Foundation. This undermined the Trump campaign’s efforts to distance itself from the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 initiative, which, according to a July poll, was viewed favorably by only 14% of respondents and unfavorably by 39%. Amid the controversy surrounding Project 2025, Roberts postponed the book's release from its original September date to November 12, after the election.

However, despite early controversy, as the election season progressed, Vance’s favorability began to climb, largely due to his active engagement with various forms of media. He frequently appeared on podcasts that Trump also joined, such as The Joe Rogan Experience, Theo Von’s “This Past Weekend,” and the Nelk Boys podcast. Vance also conducted several high-profile traditional media interviews, including a contentious appearance with CNN’s Jake Tapper and an interview with ABC News’ Martha Raddatz. At rallies, he also regularly took questions from the media covering the events.

His performance in the vice-presidential debate also contributed to his improved standing, with 43% of respondents in an Economist/YouGov poll saying he won the debate, compared to only 28% for Tim Walz.

Vance’s increased favorability was reflected in polling conducted after the election. The most recent Economist/YouGov poll revealed that he was the only one of the four presidential and vice-presidential candidates to achieve a positive net favorability rating, with 44% of respondents viewing him favorably and 43% viewing him unfavorably. This improvement was largely driven by independents, whose net favorability rating for Vance shifted from -17% at the beginning of the campaign to just -3% after the election. Walz was the next most favorable among the remaining candidates, with a net favorability of -1%, followed by Trump at -2% and Harris at -4%.

Compared to other prominent figures in Trump’s political circle, voters also indicated that they want Vance to have a bigger influence on Trump’s second administration. When respondents were asked how much influence they wanted various individuals to have in the administration, 34% said they wanted Vance to have “a lot” of influence. This was higher than the 27% who said the same for Elon Musk and the 19% who preferred Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to have significant influence.