GOP Poised To Regain Senate Majority, Polls Indicate

Since the debate, Donald Trump has taken a strong lead in nationwide and swing state polls. Although Senate Democrats are performing better than Republicans in individual toss-up state senate polls, the GOP is poised to reclaim the U.S. Senate in November.

Currently, the Senate is controlled by Democrats, with 51 Democrats and 49 Republicans. However, with the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin from West Virginia, Republicans are likely to gain an edge. West Virginia’s Senate seat is expected to go to Republican candidate Jim Justice, given Trump’s 39-point victory in the state in 2020.

The RCP Senate Map shows that Republicans are likely to secure at least 50 seats, while Democrats are guaranteed 43. The other seven Senate toss-up states – Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – are all currently held by Democrats. If Republicans win just one of these seats, they will gain a majority in the Senate.

The only poll examining all these states since the first presidential debate is from Remington Research (R), conducted June 29-July 1. It shows that most toss-up Senate seats lean towards Democrats, but Republicans have opportunities to gain a few.

Unsurprisingly, the most likely seat for Republicans to gain is in Montana, which Trump won by 16.4 points in 2020. This year’s Senate race is between Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who’s served in the seat since 2007, and Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and founder of Bridger Aerospace, an aerial firefighting and aerospace company valued at around $140 million. The poll shows Sheehy leading Tester by 5 points, 50% to 45%.

The poll shows the Arizona and Wisconsin Senate races currently tied at 47% and 48% respectively. In Arizona, the race is between Republican Kari Lake, who lost the 2022 Arizona governor’s race, and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has served Arizona’s third district since 2023. Previous polls indicated Gallego was ahead, with the current RCP Average for the Arizona Senate race having him 2 points ahead of Lake. In Wisconsin, Republican entrepreneur Eric Hovde is challenging incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Another Wisconsin poll from Fabrizio/Anzalone, conducted June 28-July 2 with 600 likely voters, shows Baldwin leading Hovde by 5 points.

In Pennsylvania and Nevada, Democrats have slight leads in the polls. In Nevada, first-term Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads veteran and businessman Sam Brown by 2 points, 48% to 46%. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, serving since 2007, leads former Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormick 49% to 48%, according to the poll.

In Ohio and Michigan, Democrats hold more significant leads. The poll found that in Ohio, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, serving since 2007, leads businessman Bernie Moreno by 6 points, 50% to 44%. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by 4 points, 47% to 43%.

The poll also examined Texas’ Senate race, finding that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz leads former NFL linebacker and current Democratic Rep. Colin Allred by 10 points, 53% to 43%. This is similar to the current RCP Average for the Texas Senate race, which shows Cruz ahead by 8.8 points.