Harris Makes Gains Among Latino Voters

Vice President Kamala Harris appears to be performing slightly worse among Latino voters than President Joe Biden did in 2020, according to a recent poll from Somos Votantes and BSP Research, two independent Latino-focused polling firms.

Harris has an 18-point lead over former President Donald Trump among Latino voters in seven battleground states, an improvement on Biden’s poll numbers immediately preceding his decision to drop out of the presidential race. Harris leads Trump 55% to 37% in the head-to-head finding, which sampled Latinos across Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. Harris trails Trump by 0.7 points nationally, according to the RCP Average. 

Harris’ lead among Latino voters, while comfortable, is not as strong as Biden’s was in his 2020 race against Trump. Exit polls from 2020 show that Biden averaged 60.7% of the Latino vote across seven swing states, while Trump averaged 37.0% support. Harris, then, is currently performing 5 points worse than Biden did in 2020, while Trump appears to be maintaining his level of support among Latino voters. 

Importantly, Harris has improved on Biden’s 2024 polling numbers. Prior to Biden’s decision to leave the race, Trump was pulling close to Biden among Latino voters, narrowing the gap to a mere 7-point difference. One NYT/Siena College poll even had Trump ahead of Biden, with 50% support among Latino voters, while Biden had just 41% support among the same voting bloc.

In other words, while Harris has made considerable gains among Latino voters since taking over at the top of the ticket for the Democrats, she has more work to do if she hopes to match or outperform the Biden of 2020.

The upside for Harris is that she has room to build on her momentum. Meanwhile, the fact that Trump is polling at 37% among Latino voters, just as he was in 2020, suggests static support for the Trump campaign. It may be that Harris’ running mate could help her among this key voting bloc, though none of the top contenders have particularly impressive “ins” with the Latino community.

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is viewed favorably by 31% of Latinos and unfavorably by 17%. Border state Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona is viewed favorably by 33% and unfavorably by 20%. Surprise contender Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was not tested by the poll. Large percentages of Latinos have no opinion of Shapiro or Kelly, meaning that Harris’ number two will soon have the opportunity to make a good (or bad) first impression on a majority of the community.

The poll also proves that the Sun Belt may be back in play for Harris, where it was out of the question for Biden. Harris is viewed positively by Latinos in Nevada by 44 points (69-25) and in Arizona by 14 points (54-40). In Nevada, Harris trails Trump by 4 points according to the RCP Average, though the only poll taken since Biden dropped out of the race placed Harris up 2 points. In Arizona, the RCP Average placed Harris 2.8 points behind Trump. Both states have a particularly large Latino presence.   

The Somos poll suggests that 34% of Latinos are more excited to vote Democratic now that Harris is running, while 10% are less excited. If Harris can continue to capitalize on this vibe shift, she may be able to at least match Biden’s 2020 performance among the Latino population – a feat that will likely be necessary if she hopes to win in November.