Inflation, Immigration, Jobs: The Issues That Got Trump Elected

On Tuesday, Donald Trump was elected by the largest popular vote margin of any Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Personality politics undoubtedly played a role in the outcome, but polls prior to the election also indicated that Trump led Harris on most of the critical issues facing Americans.

In one of the last Economist/YouGov polls conducted before the election, respondents were asked to rank their most important issues. At the top of the list across all demographic groups was inflation/prices, with 25% identifying it as their most important issue. Following inflation were immigration, jobs, health care, and abortion. 

Later in the poll, respondents were asked who they believed would perform better on these issues, and on the key issue of inflation, Trump outperformed Harris by 7 points, 46%-39%. Among independents, Trump performed 15% better on the issue, with a margin of 43%-28%. Out of the top five issues, Trump also performed 13 points better on immigration and 5 points better on jobs. However, Harris gained traction on issues further down the list, with a 17-point lead on abortion and a 14-point lead on health care.

According to exit polls, the economy was also the top issue that motivated Trump voters to head to the polls. NBC Exit Polls showed that 51% of self-identified Trump voters said the economy was the issue that mattered most in deciding their vote. Immigration came in second, with 21% of Trump voters identifying it as their primary concern. Among Democrats, 56% identified democracy as their top issue, while 21% prioritized abortion.

ABC’s exit polls revealed similar results, with the “state of democracy,” economy, abortion, immigration, and foreign policy ranking among the top five issues. Reflecting Trump’s proposed plan to implement the “largest deportations in American history,” 39% of respondents agreed that most undocumented immigrants should be deported.

The Economist poll found even more support for many of Trump’s immigration policies. The poll showed 54% support for arresting and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, while 34% were opposed to such measures. Among Hispanic respondents, this policy received slightly more support than opposition, with 42% in favor and 41% opposed. There was even greater support for Trump’s policy of deploying the U.S. military to assist with arrests along the U.S.-Mexico border, which 56% supported compared to 31% who opposed.

On economic matters, there was also significantly more support for Trump than Harris. When respondents were asked if they believed the U.S. economy would improve if either Trump or Harris were elected, 44% said they thought it would improve if Trump were elected, while only 34% said the same of Harris. Among independents, a similar gap emerged, with 44% saying they believed the economy would worsen under Harris, compared to only 34% saying the same of Trump.

Despite Trump’s apparent advantage on the top three issues, the Economist poll taken before the election still found Harris leading by multiple points. In future elections, it may be helpful to consider voters’ opinions on which candidate would handle the top issues best as a supplementary indicator to traditional polling results, as three consecutive presidential elections have shown the difficulty of accurately polling support for polarizing candidates.