Is Virginia a Swing State?

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 5.4 points, and in 2020, Joe Biden won the state by 9.4 points. Despite these significant leads for Democrats, polls from earlier this summer indicated that Donald Trump could take the state in the race against Biden. However, now that Kamala Harris has entered the race, polls suggest Democrats are likely to sweep the state again by a large margin.

The latest poll from the Washington Post, conducted in Virginia Sept. 4-8 with 1,005 likely voters, found that similar to 2020, Harris led Trump by 8 points in both the head-to-head and multi-candidate race. Among independents, she also led by 5 points, 48%-43%.

Earlier this summer, some polls indicated that Trump was leading. One from Emerson College, taken the weekend before Biden dropped out, had Trump up by 2 points, and another from late June and early July had Trump ahead by 3 points. When Biden dropped out of the race, Trump led by 0.4 points in the RCP Average.

This lead was believable, as although Democrats have won recent presidential elections, Republicans have been victorious in past gubernatorial contests. The most recent example is Glenn Youngkin, who won the governorship in 2021, defeating former Democratic Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe by 1.9 points. Previously, Bob McDonnell won the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial election, defeating Democrat Creigh Deeds by 17.6 points, despite Obama having won the state just a year earlier by 6.4 points.

Now, however, a series of polls shows Harris gaining ground. Before the Washington Post poll, Roanoke College released a poll that found Harris leading by 3 points. The current RCP Average for the presidential race in Virginia now shows Harris ahead by 5.3 points.

The Senate race in Virginia appears even more favorable for Democrats. In the Washington Post poll, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine led his opponent, Republican Hung Cao, by 12 points. The RCP Average for the Virginia Senate race similarly shows Kaine leading by 12.2 points. In his previous race in 2018, Kaine won the state by 15.7 points against Corey Stewart. In the 2020 Virginia Senate election, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner also won by 11 points against Republican challenger Daniel Gade.

While Republicans won Virginia in every presidential election from 1952 to 2004, except in 1964 when Lyndon B. Johnson won, Democrats now seem likely to maintain a lead in most races, except for gubernatorial contests. However, this might not hold in all future contests in the state, especially with speculation that Glenn Youngkin could be a Republican presidential contender in 2028.