One Week Post-Election: GOP Leads in Close House Contest

Nearly a week has passed since the 2024 presidential election, in which results quickly confirmed Donald Trump as the next president and a Republican majority in the Senate. Despite Republicans holding a strong lead in the general congressional ballot, Republicans will only take a small majority in in the House.

Currently, 428 of the 435 House races have been called, with 219 for Republicans and 209 for Democrats. Of the races already decided, that would be a net gain of one seat for Republicans compared to the 2022 count.

There are currently still uncalled races in Alaska, Maine, California, and Iowa. Part of the reason for the delayed vote counts in California is that the state mails ballots to every registered voter’s home, and ballots are counted as long as they arrive within seven days of the presidential election, provided they are postmarked by Election Day. That means ballots could still be coming in all of the California races.

All of the races but the one in Alaska are still within three points of each other (the Republican leads in Alaska 49.5% to 45.4%). If all the candidates who currently lead end up winning their races, Republicans will control the House, 222-213. 

Betting markets predict similar results. On Polymarket, there is only a 2% chance the GOP ends up with 219 seats, and a 93% probability they win between 220 and 222 seats.

Republicans won by a similar margin in the 2022 midterms, taking the House with 222 seats to the Democrats’ 213. In that election, Republicans won by a 2.8-point margin in the general congressional ballot, and although final figures aren’t yet available for the 2024 nationwide margin, they are likely to win by a greater margin while maintaining a similar seat count in the House.

This slim majority could cause difficulties in the House if unity isn’t achieved under Trump’s leadership. Over the past two years, Republicans have experienced very public infighting, including multiple contests for House Speaker, where Kevin McCarthy was initially elected and later succeeded by Mike Johnson.

This conflict may be less likely in Trump’s second term, as Republicans will no longer be in opposition and will have a clear leader in President Trump. However, with only a 10-seat or fewer majority, a few absent or “no” votes could still block critical or controversial legislation if Republican leadership can’t maintain full unity on every vote.