Post-Debate Swing State Polling Update 

Nationally, former President Trump has gained about two points in the RCP Average since the first presidential debate on June 27. Recent polling indicates conflicting results on whether this effect has occurred in the swing states.

The latest poll from Emerson College, conducted with 1,000 registered voters between June 30 and July 2, shows that Trump is performing as well as or better in every swing state compared to the previous Emerson College poll conducted before the debate from June 13 to June 18. In both polls, Trump leads in all the swing states surveyed: Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

In the latest poll, Trump led by four points, 46% to 42%, in Arizona; one point, 45% to 44%, in Michigan; and three points, 47% to 44%, in Wisconsin, matching his leads in the pre-debate Emerson poll. His lead in Nevada increased from three points to six points, 47% to 41%, in the post-debate poll. In Pennsylvania, his lead grew from two points to five points, 48% to 43%, and in Georgia, his lead expanded from four points to five points, 47% to 42%.

The latest Emerson College poll was sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation. A post-debate poll from Remington Research Group found similar results, placing Trump ahead in every swing state.

In the Remington poll, his lead was the greatest in Nevada and Arizona, where he led by seven points. Trump also held a three-point lead in Michigan and a five-point lead in Pennsylvania. The biggest change from previous polls was in Wisconsin, where he held a six-point lead, 49%-43%, the largest lead Trump has held in a poll in Wisconsin this election cycle.

However, the post-debate poll from Bloomberg/Morning Consult showed that Biden might be doing better than other polls suggest in the swing states. Conducted from July 1 to July 5 with around 700 registered voters in each state, this poll found that President Biden leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by three and five points, respectively, in a head-to-head race. This represents a shift from the previous Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted in May, where Biden was up by one point in Michigan, and Trump was up by one point in Wisconsin.

While this is the biggest lead Biden has had in a poll in Michigan this year, Trump led by seven points in Pennsylvania, his biggest lead in a Pennsylvania poll this year. In the previous Bloomberg poll, Trump only led by two points in Pennsylvania.

In Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, Trump’s lead was smaller in the Morning Consult poll than in other pre-debate polls. In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump led by three points in the poll, while both maintained 5+ point leads in their RCP Averages. In Georgia, he leads by only one point in the Consult poll, while he leads by 3.7 points in the Georgia RCP Average for the head-to-head race. In Nevada, Trump’s five-point lead in the poll was similar to his 4.6-point lead in the RCP Average.

The Bloomberg poll also surveyed respondents on their preferences in a five-way race, including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent candidate Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Kennedy polled between 6% and 10%, depending on the state, while West and Stein both polled between 0% and 2%. Trump and Biden’s leads in the five-way race stayed within one point of their head-to-head race leads in five of the seven states. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead fell from seven points in the head-to-head race to three points in the five-way race. In Arizona, his lead grew from three points in the head-to-head to seven points in the five-way race.