Senate Races Tighten: GOP Majority in Question

Before the latest polling, it seemed Republicans were on track to secure a Senate majority in November. However, the polls from over the weekend reveal that some Republican seats are more competitive than expected, increasing the chances of a split Senate or Democrats maintaining control.

The latest The Hill/Emerson College poll, conducted from September 3-5 with between 815 and 945 likely voters per state, found that although Trump leads in Florida, Texas, and Ohio, the Senate races in those states are all within the margin of error.

In Ohio, previous polls have already shown that Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is leading Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. Similar to the RCP Average for the Ohio Senate race, which has Brown up 3.6 points, this Emerson College poll found Brown leading by two points, 46% to 44%.

In Florida and Texas, however, the poll’s results were more surprising. In Florida, incumbent Republican Rick Scott led by only one point against former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, while Trump led by five points in the state. The RCP Average for the Florida Senate race shows Scott leading by a wider margin of 4.3 points. More polls showing the race within a few points could push this state back into toss-up territory.

In Texas, both Trump and Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz led by four points. In the RCP Average, Cruz leads his opponent, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, by six points. In 2020, Trump won Texas by 5.6 points, and Republican Sen. John Cornyn won by 9.7 points.

The poll also surveyed California, where it found that Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff held comfortable leads of 24 points and 22 points, respectively.

Trafalgar Group (R) also recently conducted Aenate polling. Similar to earlier polling, it found that former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers trailed Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin by four points in Michigan, and Republican businessman Eric Hovde trailed incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin by six points in Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Republican businessman David McCormick appears to be within striking distance of Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr., with the poll finding Casey up by one point and the current RCP Average showing Casey up by 2.6 points.

As reflected in the RCP Senate Map, if Senate races follow current RCP Averages, Republicans are poised to pick up Senate seats in Montana and West Virginia, flipping the chamber from 51-49 in favor of Democrats to a Republican majority. However, recent polls suggest that previously assumed Republican leads in Florida, Texas, and Pennsylvania could put the future balance of the Senate in question heading into November.