Swing State Polls Closer Than Ever

Over Labor Day weekend, several swing state polls were released, all indicating a very tight race. With just two months until the presidential election and only one presidential and one vice-presidential debate remaining, no clear leader has emerged.

One poll from Insider Advantage, which took place in the southern swing states with 800 likely voters per state from Aug. 29-31, found that all the states polled were within a few points. In Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, Trump led Harris by one point. In Georgia, both candidates were tied.

In the northern Rust Belt swing states, Trafalgar Group (R) found that the races were also within a few points. Their poll, taken from Aug. 28-30 with 1,082-1,089 likely voters per state, found that in Pennsylvania, Trump led by two points. In Wisconsin, Trump led by one point, and in Michigan, they were tied.

A few individual pollsters found similar results. One poll from EPIC-MRA in Michigan, taken from Aug. 23-26 with 600 likely voters, found Trump led by one point in the state. The latest North Carolina poll from East Carolina University, taken from Aug. 26-28 with 920 likely voters, found that Trump led by one point.

In the head-to-head RCP Averages, neither candidate has more than a 1.4-point lead in any swing state. Harris currently leads by a slim margin in the Rust Belt, with a 1.1-point lead in the Michigan RCP Average, 1.4 points in Wisconsin, and 0.5 points in Pennsylvania. In the South, Trump leads by 0.7 points in North Carolina, 0.2 points in Georgia, and 0.5 points in Arizona. In Nevada, the candidates are tied.

If these averages were the final election results in November, Harris would win the election 270-262, with the last six electoral votes being tied in Nevada. Using the five-way averages, Harris picks up Arizona, and her lead expands to 281-241, with the other 16 electoral college votes in North Carolina, which is currently tied in the five-way RCP Average. In 2020, Biden won 303-235, taking all the swing states except North Carolina.

In non-presidential races, the polls found Democrats are leading. In the North Carolina governor race, East Carolina University found Democrat Josh Stein leads Republican Mark Robinson 47% to 41%. The Insider Advantage poll also found that in the Arizona Senate race, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego leads Kari Lake by four points, and in the Nevada Senate race, incumbent Democrat Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown by 10 points. In Michigan, the EPIC-MRA poll found Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin leads former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers by four points in the Senate race.