Swing State Update: Is Virginia in Play?

Recent months have solidified former President Trump’s lead in polls nationally in spite of the ongoing New York hush-money trial. Despite his consistent lead nationally, which hasn’t slipped since the start of 2024, many of the swing states that could decide the race remain highly competitive as the election approaches.

One state considered secure for President Biden was Virginia, which he won by 9.4 points in 2020, and Hillary Clinton won by 5.4 points in 2016. However, a recent Roanoke College poll, conducted from May 12-21 with 711 likely voters, reported that Trump and Biden were tied at 42% each in the head-to-head race. Biden was only ahead by 2% in the five-way race, with Biden at 40%, Trump at 38%, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 8%, Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3%, and Cornel West at 1%. Other than the Roanoke poll, there’s been a dearth of polls in Virginia, so future polls are needed to determine whether the election is consistently close in the state.

The two closest states in the RealClearPolitics Polling Averages are Michigan and Wisconsin. Recent polls from Michigan have been almost split, with three of the polls in the Average having Biden up by 1-2 points and four of them having Trump up by 1-3 points. These culminated in Trump being up by only 0.5 points in the two-way average and perfectly tied in the five-way race.

Wisconsin’s polls are just as close, with the recent swing state Cook Political Report poll having them tied. This mirrors the head-to-head RCP Average in Wisconsin, as Trump holds only a 0.1-point lead, meaning the race is effectively tied in the head-to-head race. His lead expands slightly to 0.7 points in the five-way race, but it is still up for grabs.

Pennsylvania has also been very close for most of the year. However, since the beginning of May, a series of polls have indicated that Trump might be gaining a small lead. The last seven polls from the state all show Trump ahead, contributing to his 2.3-point lead in the two-way race and 3.2 in the five-way RCP Averages.

The other southern swing states have held a strong Trump lead, but recent polls in Nevada and Arizona have revealed there is a chance, albeit small, that tides might change. In Nevada, the most recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll conducted from May 7-13 found that Trump and Biden were tied, but other polls indicate a strong lead for Trump, resulting in a Trump lead of 5.4 points in the RCP Average in Nevada. In Arizona, the Cook Political Report poll found Trump had a one-point lead, but similar to Nevada, most other polls indicate a strong lead for Trump, resulting in a 4-point lead in the Arizona RCP Average.

The last two likely swing states, North Carolina and Georgia, seem to be solidly for Trump. Trump has led in every poll from those states this year and is currently up by 4.8 points in both Averages.