The Demographics That Flipped for Trump: Young Men, Working Class, and Hispanics

It’s been just over a month since the reelection of Donald Trump, and the dust has now settled. With plenty of exit polling and post-election analysis, it now seems clear Trump won by capitalizing on three key demographics: young men, the working class, and Hispanics.

The first group was young men, who solidly fit into the podcast generation. According to a 2023 Pew Research poll, 67% of people ages 18-29 had listened to a podcast in the last 12 months, compared to only 28% of those 65 and older. Among podcast listeners, younger people also listened more frequently, with 48% of 18-29-year-old listeners tuning in “at least a few times a week,” compared to 27% of listeners 65 and older.

Advised by his 18-year-old son, Barron Trump, and 27-year-old campaign advisor Alex Bruesewitz, Trump capitalized on these younger voters who listened to podcasts, who in the past leaned more Democratic. He stormed the podcast scene in a way no major presidential candidate had done before, garnering over 80 million views on YouTube alone across only five podcasts: The Joe Rogan Experience, Flagrant with Andrew Schulz, Lex Fridman, The Past Weekend with Theo Von, and Adin Ross’s live stream. Across other streaming sites and through clips on short-form social media, these podcasts translated into hundreds of millions of additional views.

This strategy wasn’t a waste of time. In 2020, Biden won 18-29-year-olds by 24 points, 60%-36%, with Trump trailing young women by 32 points, 65%-33%, and young men by 15 points, 56%-41%. In this year’s election, Trump only lost the demographic by 11 points, 54%-43%. Among young men, he actually led by one point, 49%-48%, while trailing among young women 61%-38%. 

The eight-point swing among young men – from 41% support to 49% – wasn’t the only significant shift. There was also a notable realignment among Hispanics, a demographic that had traditionally leaned solidly Democratic.

In 2020, Biden won Latinos by 33 points, 65%-32%. In 2024, he only edged out Trump by five points, 51%-46%. While the reasons for the shift are less obvious than the story around young men, inflation and rising prices likely played a significant role. While inflation was the top issue for whites, blacks, and Hispanics, the latter group prioritized it even more, with 33% rating it the most important issue in The Economist’s final pre-election poll, compared to 24% for blacks and 23% for whites.

The other group that Trump made the most gains with was the working class, especially compared to previous Republican candidates. Looking back to 2012, Obama won 63% of voters making $30,000 or less and 57% of those earning $30,000-$49,999 per year. In 2016, when Trump won, Hillary Clinton only received 53% and 51% of these income brackets, respectively.

In 2020, Biden slightly improved with voters earning under $50,000 annually, garnering 54% support, and with those making $50,000-$100,000, earning 56%. However, in 2024, Trump flipped both income brackets, securing 50% support among voters making under $50,000 and 52% among those earning $50,000-$100,000.

Trump’s success in winning working-class and lower- and middle-income support was in part due to inflation and his outreach to unions. For the first time at a Republican National Convention, Sean O’Brien, president of the Teamsters Union, which has approximately 1.3 million members, spoke at the event.

Polling conducted after the Republican Convention within Teamsters from July 24 to Sept. 15 found that 59.6% of rank-and-file members supported the union endorsing Trump, compared to 34% for Vice President Kamala Harris. As a result, the Teamsters chose not to endorse a presidential candidate, even though they endorsed the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020.

All of these major shifts in key demographics contributed to a six-point swing in the popular vote, with Trump flipping Biden’s 4.5-point win in 2020 to a 1.5-point lead, marking the first Republican popular vote victory in 20 years. Whether these voters stay with the Republican Party remains uncertain, as it greatly depends on whether Trump delivers on the economy or faces the same inflation challenges as the Biden administration.