Trump Gaining Momentum in Swing States

New polling from Emerson College shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden in seven swing states and in a national poll, adding to his 2.5-point lead in the RealClearPolitics Average. 

The poll was conducted July 15-16, meaning respondents had time to absorb the chaos of the past week. In the week preceding the poll, voters witnessed Trump dodge a would-be assassin's bullet while Biden confused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for the man who invaded Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the days since, Trump selected Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his running mate and the two men officially gained their party’s nomination at the Republican National Convention, while Biden tested positive for COVID-19.

The momentum of Trump’s campaign is mirrored in the polls. The Emerson poll showed that 46% of registered voters support Trump nationwide, while 42% support Biden. Another 12% of voters remain undecided. Biden’s recent shows of weakness – including a disastrous debate performance that showed all 81 of his years and left a lingering air of anxiety over his reelection campaign – are reflected in a minor drop in support: Earlier this month, 44% of voters supported Biden, meaning the president suffered a two-point drop in support while Trump’s numbers stood steady at 46%.

“Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.”

Polling shows that Trump has gained momentum in six out of seven swing states since March 2024. He has gained one point in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and is up two points in Arizona. He has lost one point in Michigan.

Alternatively, Biden has lost momentum in all seven swing states since March. He is down one point in Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, down two points in Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and down four points in North Carolina.

The Emerson poll, alongside recent swing state polling from Insider Advantage, places Trump comfortably ahead in the seven states that decided the 2020 election, according to respective RealClearPolitics polling averages.

Trump leads by six points in Arizona, four points in Georgia, 1.6 points in Michigan, 5.1 points in Nevada, 5.7 points in North Carolina, 4.5 points in Pennsylvania, and 3.4 points in Wisconsin. While Trump won North Carolina’s electoral votes in 2020, Biden won the other six states four years ago, thanks to tens of thousands of voters, and he will be unable to secure reelection without their continued support – which, at present, they seem unwilling to give him.