Trump May Win Election Despite Likely Popular Vote Defeat

In 2016, Trump won the presidential election despite losing the national popular vote. In 2020, Trump outperformed the national popular vote in most swing states but still lost by a whisker in key states, leading to Biden’s victory. In this year’s presidential election, there is a strong possibility that Trump could win again despite losing the popular vote.

The current RealClearPolitics Nationwide Polling Average has Harris up 1.8 points in the head-to-head race and 2.6 points in the multi-way race with third-party candidates. In the RCP Battleground States Average, however, she only leads by 0.2 points. 

This effect, where Trump does better in swing states than the nationwide polling, was also present when Biden was still in the race. On the day Biden withdrew, Trump led by 3.1 points nationally and 4.4 points on average in the battlegrounds. This indicates that Harris and Biden both hold a 1- to 2-point advantage in the nationwide polling compared to swing state polls.

In 2016 and 2020, this effect was even more pronounced. Biden won the 2020 election by 4.6 points nationally but only won by 0.03 points in the top battleground states. In 2016, Trump won the battleground states by 1.7 points but lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points. In both elections, there was an approximate 3- to 4.5-point swing in Trump’s favor from the national popular vote to the battleground states.

Although Trump’s advantage in swing states compared to the national popular vote appears smaller than in past elections, even a 1- to 2-point shift from the national popular vote to swing states could still tip the election in Trump’s favor.

Betting markets are also currently predicting a Trump election win but a national popular vote loss. In the RCP Betting Odds Average, Trump leads by 2.3 points, 50.5%-48.2%. One betting site, Polymarket, has Trump ahead by seven percentage points in likelihood of winning, 53%-46%. However, in the Polymarket betting market for the national popular vote, Harris has a 70% chance of winning, while Trump trails at 30%.

Before 2016, the last election in which the winner did not win the popular vote was in 2000, when George Bush beat Al Gore. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5 points, but Bush won the election with 271 electoral college votes. The election came down to Florida, which Bush won by a mere 537 votes. The November election was followed by a series of legal battles about a possible recount, culminating in the 5-4 Supreme Court decision Bush v. Gore that ended the recount.

Before the 2000 presidential election, the last time the popular vote winner lost was in 1888, when Benjamin Harrison defeated Grover Cleveland despite losing the popular vote by 0.9 points. A similar situation occurred in 1876 when Rutherford B. Hayes won the presidency after losing the popular vote by three points to Samuel Tilden.

In 1824, the first year the popular vote was recorded nationally, no candidate secured a majority in the electoral college. As a result, the House of Representatives elected John Quincy Adams as president under the 12th Amendment, despite Andrew Jackson having the plurality of both the electoral college and popular vote.