Trump Outperformed the Polls, Again

In 2016, Donald Trump vastly outperformed the polls, leading to an Electoral College win but a popular vote loss. In 2020, Trump again outperformed the polls, but not by a significant enough margin to win the election. Although many predicted that this year’s polls might overcompensate for anti-Trump biases from 2016 and 2020, potentially overestimating his performance, Trump once again outperformed the polls both nationally and in all the battleground states.

The clearest evidence of this is in the "blue wall" states. In nearly all polling, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were considered effective ties, with Harris leading by 0.4 points in Wisconsin and 0.5 points in Michigan, while Trump led by 0.4 points in Pennsylvania, according to the final RCP Averages.

In the final election results, however, Trump led in all three states. Although final numbers may change as the last ballot counts come in, he currently leads by 2.3 points in Pennsylvania, 1.6 points in Michigan, and 0.8 points in Wisconsin – an average of a 1.7-point swing in Trump’s direction from the polls.

A similar story is unfolding in the national popular vote. While votes are still being counted in some states, Trump currently leads in the popular vote, 50.9% to 47.4%, a 3.5-point lead. The RCP Average for the National Popular Vote showed an effective tie, with Harris ahead by just 0.1 points. Trump’s popular vote win is particularly significant, as Republicans have only won the national popular vote once since 1992 – in 2004. This win suggests that despite shifting demographics and voting trends, a Democratic popular vote victory is far from guaranteed in future presidential elections.

In Georgia and North Carolina, the polls were directionally correct in predicting a Trump win, but by a smaller margin than the actual election results. In North Carolina, Trump won by 3.3 points compared to a 1.2-point lead in the RCP Average, and in Georgia, he won by 2.6 points after leading by 1.3 points in the RCP Average.

In the other swing states, there are still a significant number of votes being counted, but the trend appears similar. If Trump’s lead in Nevada holds, he will win by 4.7 points, while he led by only 0.6 points in the RCP Average. Arizona was his best state in the RCP Average, where he led by 2.8 points and currently leads by 4.7 points in reported results.

These numbers indicate that the polls underestimated Trump by an average of 2.1 points in the swing states, similar to underestimations in 2016. However, a Trump win is less surprising this time, as he led by a narrow margin in the RCP Averages for swing states and ultimately won by a larger margin than expected. Unlike in 2016, there were no states like Wisconsin where Trump outperformed the polls by 7.2 points and won despite trailing Clinton by 6.5 points.

Trump also did better in former- and non-swing states. Perhaps the biggest shift since Trump entered the political scene occurred in Florida, which was considered a swing state before 2016 and had voted Democratic as recently as 2012. This year, however, Trump won Florida by 13.1 points, an even larger margin than Harris’ 11.6-point win in New York, a traditionally Democratic stronghold.

Some states that seemed out of reach in 2020 also became more competitive. Former swing states Minnesota and New Mexico, which Biden won by 7.6 points and 10.6 points, respectively, were lost by Trump only by 4.2 points and 5.5 points. Although these are still significant margins, if Republicans target these states as swing states they could come back into play in future elections.

This was Republicans' best performance since Donald Trump entered the political scene. In the coming weeks, we’ll learn more about the specific issues that led to his swing state sweep. Whatever the reasons, Trump once again outperformed most pollsters’ predictions, achieving the largest national popular vote win of any Republican presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush’s 1988 victory.