Trump Targets Harris on Economy Amid Biden’s Low Ratings
The latest economic numbers indicate that the economy is finally returning to a steady-state following the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war. However, polling numbers aren’t reflecting this improving economy, as Biden’s approval rating on the economy continues to be unfavorable, leading Trump and Harris to differ on how they frame economic issues coming into the election.
Last week, GDP figures for the second quarter of 2024 were released, revealing 2.8% annualized growth, beating expectations of a 2.0% increase and doubling the first quarter’s annualized growth of 1.4%.
Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation figures for June, also released last week, continued the slowing trend, increasing by only 0.1% month over month and 2.5% since last June. If inflation continued at 0.1% month over month for the next year, inflation over the year would be around 1.3%, well below the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.
The only worrying numbers are in unemployment, which crept up to 4.1% in June from its low of 3.4% in 2023, partly due to elevated interest rates set by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation. Despite being slightly higher compared to earlier years during Biden’s term, the latest unemployment figures still indicate a strong labor market, reflecting similar levels (in late 2017 and early 2018) during President Trump’s term.
Despite steadily increasing GDP growth, decreasing inflation, and relatively low unemployment, President Biden still faces a low approval rating on the economy. The latest Harvard-Harris poll conducted July 26-28 rated Biden at 39% approval and 61% disapproval on the issue. The current RCP Average for Biden’s approval rating on the economy also has him at a similar 39% approval and 58.4% disapproval.
On inflation, the Harvard-Harris poll found Biden faced even worse approval at just 36%, while 64% disapproved. The current RCP Average for Biden’s approval on inflation shows a similar poor rating with 62.5% disapproval and 34.8% approval, a negative 27.7-point spread. These numbers are slightly better than they were earlier in his presidency when, in June 2022, Biden faced a net negative approval rating on the economy of 36 points and 44 points on inflation, according to a Harvard-Harris poll from that time.
These numbers proved worrisome for Biden when he was running for reelection, and now Trump is trying to connect the negative sentiments to Vice President Kamala Harris as well.
A recent ad posted by the Trump campaign titled “Kamala Harris owns Bidenomics” tries to connect Harris to the term and the perceived failings of Biden on the economy. “Bidenomics is working,” Kamala is quoted saying multiple times throughout the ad. Notably, the ad does not point to any specific economic indicators, indicating that the Trump campaign thinks the term “Bidenomics” is already a tainted label.
Trump has also criticized Harris on the economy on Truth Social, recently posting a graphic called “Biden-Harris Accomplishments,” which included “Historic inflation crisis, Record high gas prices in all 50 states,” and “Record high consumer debt.”
Instead of addressing inflation and prices head-on, Kamala has reframed the argument around the economy in her first series of presidential speeches. Straying away from referencing specific economic indicators, she focuses on her policy for welfare economics, telling the American Federation of Teachers in a speech last week that she envisions “a future where no child has to grow up in poverty, where every senior can retire with dignity, and where every worker has the freedom to join a union.”
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