VA, NJ 2025 Gov. Results Likely To Mirror National Mood

By Jonathan Draeger
Published On: Last updated 02/19/2025, 10:40 AM ET

In 2025, gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey remain unpredictable, as both states have a history of swinging left and right depending on the race. While the candidates themselves will be the most significant factor in determining the outcome, in recent history, national political sentiments have been a leading indicator of which direction these elections have swayed.

Virginia

In Virginia, two new candidates will face each other because Virginia governors are not allowed to serve consecutive terms, although they may run again in later elections. The two main candidates now are Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger from Virginia’s 7th District.

While there is potential for other candidates to enter the race, polls have already been conducted on the matchup between these two frontrunners. In the RCP Average of the first four polls, Spanberger leads by 4.8 points, with 44.3% for Spanberger and 39.5% for Earle-Sears. However, about 16% of voters remain undecided, leaving the race up in the air as Virginians learn more about the candidates.

Last year, Kamala Harris won the state by a margin similar to Spanberger’s current lead, beating Trump 51.8% to 46.1%. In 2020, Biden won Virginia by 10 points, and just one year later, Republican Glenn Youngkin won the state by two points, defeating Terry McAuliffe, who served as governor from 2014 to 2018. For Earle-Sears to become governor, she needs only half of the swing to the right that occurred between the 2020 and 2021 elections.

New Jersey

The candidates for the New Jersey election are less certain than in Virginia. On the Republican side, the latest Emerson College poll from late February found that 2021 New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli led with 26% support in the Republican primary, while talk show host Bill Spadea came in second with 13%. Several other candidates received 4% or less, but 47% said they were undecided, leaving the contest open.

In the Democratic primary, there isn’t a clear frontrunner. According to the poll, Rep. Mikie Sherrill leads slightly at 10%, followed by New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka at 8%, with Rep. Josh Gottheimer and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney both at 7%.

In New Jersey, a similar swing occurred between the 2020 and 2021 elections as in Virginia. In 2020, Biden won the state by 16 points, while in 2021, Democrat Phil Murphy won the gubernatorial contest by only 3.2 points. In 2024, Trump lost the state by six points, leaving it open for a Republican candidate if they can swing a few points in their direction.

New Jersey has a history of flipping from one party to the other as well. In 2012, Barack Obama won the state by almost 18 points, while in 2013, Republican Chris Christie won by 22 points– a 40-point swing in just one year. Republicans in the state need only capture a small percentage of those swing voters to win in 2025.

While the outcome will largely depend on the strength of the candidates, national politics and public sentiment will also come into play. During the 2021 elections, when both states’ gubernatorial contests shifted right relative to the presidential races, Biden’s job approval rating fell after the Afghanistan withdrawal, dropping from a +7% in early summer to -9% around the time of the gubernatorial elections. Similarly, in 2017, in both New Jersey and Virginia, the Democratic gubernatorial candidates won their states by larger margins than Hillary Clinton did, and Trump’s approval rating was -16%.

2025-02-19T00:00:00.000Z
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