Where the Dems Have Lost Key Ground

Democrats have been all smiles since President Joe Biden abandoned his bid for reelection in late July and Vice President Kamala Harris took over as the party’s standard bearer. Spirits were lifted higher yet after Harris gave a strong showing against Donald Trump at Tuesday’s presidential debate.

Yet polling suggests that as Harris has gained ground with key demographics (female and black voters) she has lost support among older and non-college educated voters, who make up an equally substantial part of the electorate.

When comparing the NY Times/Siena College poll from June to the same firm’s September poll, shifts in support become clear. Harris has received a warm welcome from certain blocs, such as black and female voters.

When black voters were asked in June whom they were likely to vote for this November, 65% said they would cast a ballot for Biden and 26% said the same of Trump. When black voters were asked that same question in September, 78% said they would vote for Harris and 14% said they would vote for Trump. Harris’ support among black voters, then, has seen a 13-point increase, while Trump’s has taken a 12-point hit. 

Harris’ increase in support among female voters has not been quite as dramatic, though it is still noteworthy. When female voters were asked in June whom they were most likely to vote for, 48% answered Biden and 43% answered Trump. Flash forward to September and the Democratic lead extends from 5 points to 11 points, with 53% of women supporting Harris and 42% supporting Trump.

Yet even as the Democrats have made gains among black and female voters, they’ve lost key ground among older and non-college educated voters. When voters aged 65 and older were asked in June whom they were more likely to support, 48% responded Biden and 45% responded Trump. Comparatively, the September survey saw 46% of voters aged 65 and up support Harris, a 2-point dip, and 52% support Trump, a 7-point jump.

The same survey shows a change in support among non-college educated white voters. Both in June and September, 30% of non-college educated white voters supported the Democratic candidate. Yet June saw 62% of non-college educated white voters support Trump, while 66% supported Trump in September, showing a 4-point jump for the former president.

These shifts show that while Harris has improved the Democrats’ standing among certain key demographics, the party is feeling Biden’s absence when it comes to older and non-college educated voters. For all of Biden’s faults, he did relatively well with older and working-class voters, two demographics on which Trump now seems to have an even stronger grasp.

These two demographics will be particularly important come November. Baby boomers and those sometimes referred to as the “Greatest Generation” or the “Silent Generation” – all those Americans born before 1964 – made up nearly half (44%) of the electorate in 2020, according to data from Pew Research.  An even larger percentage of the population – 62.1%, according to Pew Research – do not hold a college degree. These two groups helped propel Trump to victory in 2020 and will have impressive pull in November.

Harris, comparatively, is still working to build her coalition, which had taken a hit under Biden’s candidacy. She will need outsized support from women and black voters, as well as other key demographics like young and Hispanic voters, if she hopes to beat Trump in November. In an election that hinges on turning out one’s base in droves, Harris will have to hope that her support among minority groups outweighs the fervor of Trump’s base.