Will Harris' Honeymoon Polling Boost Last?

Vice President Kamala Harris has cut former President Donald Trump’s lead by more than half since joining the race last week. Three polls this week have placed Harris ahead of Trump, minimizing Trump’s lead to 1.4 points in the RCP Average. On the day President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race, Trump led by 3.1 points.

The average includes 13 polls since July 21, when Biden dropped out of the race. The two most recent polls are contradictory – a Harvard-Harris poll showed Trump ahead of Harris by four points, while a Daily Kos/Civiqs poll placed Harris ahead of Trump by four points.

Harris’ gains in the polls are buoyed by increased support among certain key groups. The Harvard/Harris poll showed that Harris is viewed more favorably than Biden among women (49% to 42%) and non-white voters (50% to 42%). She is also viewed much more favorably by America’s youngest voters; where just 27% of 18-24-year-old voters viewed Biden favorably, nearly half (47%) felt positively toward Harris.

Trump, in comparison, is viewed favorably by 44% of women, 43% of non-white voters, and 44% of 18-24-year-olds. This suggests that while Biden was virtually tied with Trump among typically blue-leaning demographics, Harris is outperforming the former president.

The new polling boost mirrors the outpouring of enthusiasm among Democrats now that their candidate is no longer 81-year-old Biden. Excitement from the base is such that the Harris campaign has raked in a record-breaking $200 million in fundraising, encouraging hopes that the vice president may be able to win in swing states that once looked lost to Trump.

A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll from earlier this week placed Harris well ahead of Trump in Michigan (11-point lead), and gave her a two-point advantage in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada. The same poll showed Trump leading Harris in Pennsylvania by four points and in North Carolina by two points. The candidates are tied in Georgia. RCP Averages place Trump ahead of Harris in every swing state except Michigan.

There are said to be two paths to victory when it comes to the battleground map: winning the Sun Belt (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina) or capturing the Blue Wall (Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania). To sweep either coalition would land a candidate in the White House. 

It was widely thought that Biden had virtually no chance of winning the Sun Belt states, but Harris’ chances look much better in the South since her polling numbers are higher among minority populations. Harris is putting in work to win southern states like Georgia, where she held a rally earlier this week.

“Georgia, it is so good to be back, and I am very clear: The path to the White House runs right through this state,” Harris said to an arena of supporters. “And you all helped us win in 2020 – and we’re gonna do it again in 2024!”

Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, plan to hold a rally at the same venue on Saturday. Four years ago, Biden won the Peach State by less than 12,000 votes, making it one of the tightest races in the country.

The Trump campaign is focusing on other Sun Belt states, too. Vance attended campaign events in Nevada and Arizona this week, even touring the “smuggler’s paradise” stretch of the southern border on Thursday. The Republican ticket is painting Harris as the “failed border czar” of the Biden administration.

“It’s unbelievable what we’re letting happen at the southern border, and it’s because Kamala Harris refuses to do her job,” Vance said.

Harris, for her part, plans to do a full tour of swing states starting on Tuesday, following the announcement of her vice-presidential pick, which will reportedly occur on Monday. The ticket will then do a series of rallies in Philadelphia (PA), Eau Claire (WI), Detroit (MI), Raleigh (NC), Savannah (GA), Phoenix (AZ), and Las Vegas (NV).

There are some fears the Harris campaign is experiencing a honeymoon boost that cannot last forever. With less than 100 days to the election, the world will not have to wait long for time to tell.