Will Republicans Keep Control of the House?

Over the last two years, the Republican-led House has been full of turmoil, primarily revolving around conflict between the Republican members of the House Freedom Caucus and Republican leadership in the House. Heading into the 2024 elections, this strife may cause some problems for Republicans, as even though Trump leads in swing states, Democrats are favored to take the House.

Although most congressional races don’t have public polling due to the vast number of them each year, some tight races do as Election Day approaches. One such race involves House Freedom Caucus member Rep. Anna Paulina Luna from Florida’s 13th District. She won her first race for the House in 2022 by 8 points, but in the latest poll from St. Pete Polls conducted on Oct. 20 with 905 likely voters, she is tied with her Democratic opponent, Whitney Fox.

This potential 8-point swing is larger than national trends but mirrors the trend in Democrats’ favor. In the RCP Average of the General Congressional Ballot, which asks voters whether they plan to vote for their Republican or Democratic congressperson in their respective district, Democrats currently lead by one point, a slight tightening from the 2-point lead Democrats held in late September.

The RCP Average of the General Congressional Ballot has been a strong predictor of House control, as the leader in the average before the election has taken the House majority in every election since 2012, with the exception of 2016, when Democrats held a 0.6-point lead in the average before the election, but Republicans won a 47-seat majority.

In 2022, Republicans won the General Congressional Ballot by 2.8 points. If the current 1-point Democratic lead holds on Election Day, that would represent an average swing of 3.8 points from 2022’s congressional races to now.

If this 3.8-point swing toward Democrats were applied directly to 2022 races, they would have won 13 more seats, giving Democrats a slim 226-209 majority. The outcome of a Democratic majority is not guaranteed, as individual candidates can influence race dynamics more than national trends. However, the 1-point lead offers a useful proxy for how Democrats are positioned to retake the House if the lead holds.

Polls from other key races suggest that Democrats’ lead in some key congressional races could be even larger than the 3 to 4-point swing. The latest Siena poll found that in New York’s 4th District, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito trails his Democratic challenger Laura Gillen by 12 points, despite beating her by 3 points in 2022. In New York’s 1st District, Rep. Nicholas LaLota beat his opponent by 11 points in 2022 but only led by 3 points against John Avlon in the Siena poll.

However, large swings toward Democrats aren’t occurring in every close district. In Michigan’s 10th District, Rep. John James, who won by just 0.5 points against Carl Marlinga in 2022, now leads Marlinga by 3 points, according to a Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted Oct. 14-16 with 400 likely voters, showing a swing in the Republican's favor.