WSJ Poll Shows Swing States Leaning Toward Trump

The Wall Street Journal published a swing-state poll Wednesday that shows former President Trump leading in most swing states. His advantage is likely due to his positions on key issues such as the economy and the conflicts in Israel and Ukraine.

Conducted from March 17-24, the poll surveyed 600 registered voters in each state and found Trump leading President Joe Biden by an average of four points. When it was broken down by state, Wisconsin was the only state to have a tie, 46%-46%. Other polls echo the fact that Wisconsin is close, as the RCP Average for Wisconsin only has Trump up 0.6 points.

Georgia’s results were also narrow, with Trump leading by only one percentage point, 44%-43%. Other Georgia polls generally show Trump with a broader lead, about 3.8 points ahead in the RCP Average in Georgia. In every other swing state, Trump led by more than three points in the WSJ poll: Arizona 5%, Nevada 4%, Michigan 3%, Pennsylvania 3%, and North Carolina 6%. 

The introduction of third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Cornel West into the poll left Trump leading in every state except Wisconsin. There, Biden moved ahead with 41% compared to Trump’s 38%, while Kennedy, Stein, and West trailed at 10% and 1% each, respectively.

Poll questions offered insight into why Trump was leading in all but one state. Participants were asked who they believed would better manage key issues such as the economy, inflation, immigration, border security, the president’s mental and physical fitness, and the conflicts between Ukraine and Russia, and Israel and Hamas. Across these issues, respondents favored Trump over Biden. Trump was favored over Biden on all of these issues in every single state.

On the topic of abortion, however, respondents across every state favored Biden over Trump. Views on protecting democracy were divided, with the majority of states siding with Biden, except for Nevada, which favored Trump.

Biden’s job performance also saw more disapproval than approval in every state, averaging 38% approval to 60% disapproval across all states. Trump received greater support, with an average approval of 51% against 47% disapproval. However, Arizona showed more disapproval than approval of Trump’s performance at 48%-49%, and Wisconsin was evenly split at 49%-49%.