2010 Maine Governor - LePage vs. Mitchell vs. Cutler

10/29/10 -- The undecideds appear to be breaking heavily toward LePage, and he is opening up a double-digit lead.

10/14/10 -- LePage's large lead looked like it was disappearing, but for now it seems to have settled in to a smallish, three-point lead.  In a three- or four-way race (depending how you count the second Independent), that is more substantial than in a two-way race.  LePage retains an edge for now.

10/11/10 -- The latest polls show a narrowing of LePage's lead, and Libby Mitchell has led in the first poll all cycle.  Interestingly, Mitchell's numbers and the Independent's numbers (Cutler) have been unchanged, but LePage's numbers have dropped.  This suggests that perhaps voters have become skeptical of LePage, but aren't quite ready to sign on to Cutler or Mitchell just yet.  The next two weeks will be critical here.

9/22/10 -- LePage has managed to keep his lead, and has even expanded it through the end of September.  LePage is presently toying with the 50 percent mark, in a three-way race, no less.  This comes even as he's faced questions regarding his family finances, and stormed out of a press conference.  This is turning out to be one of the strongest Republican challenges for the Governor's mansion in this state in years.

----------Race Preview---------

“As goes Maine, so goes the nation.” This was the rule of thumb for political prognosticators for decades. Maine is a quirky state, and for years it held its elections in September. This gave an early view of the mood of the country in the day before reliable public opinion polling.  Of course this ended in 1936 when Maine and Vermont were the only two states to vote against FDR, causing his campaign manager to famously comment “as goes Maine, so goes Vermont.”

But make no mistake, for years the only question was what degree of support Maine would give to the Republican candidate. Until 1954, when Ed Muskie won, the Republicans had only lost five gubernatorial elections – at a time when governor’s elections were held every two years.

Since then, Republicans have only won four Governor’s elections; they haven’t even come close since winning in 1990. In keeping with the state’s quirky character, the state has a predilection for independents – only once has a major party candidate won a majority in the state since the 1970s.

Democratic Governor John Baldacci was vulnerable in 2006, but Republicans nominated Chandler Woodcock, a social conservative who allowed Baldacci to win with 39 percent of the vote. Republicans might be making the same mistake again. Democrats have nominated state Senate President Libby Mitchell, who hopes to become the state’s first female Governor. Republicans nominated Paul LePage, a fiscally and socially conservative mayor of Waterville, Maine. LePage has led in polling early on, and the present focus on fiscal issues could keep him afloat. Still, it will be a challenge to keep his lead through November.