2010 Arkansas Governor - Keet vs. Beebe

The ascent of the Republican Party in most Southern states usually involved some combination of three factors: A vestigial Republican Party left over from Reconstruction providing a base of support, a split in the Democratic Party between conservatives and populists, and a booming metropolis that attracted Northern Republicans southward. States with all three factors present realigned early (Virginia, Texas) while states with fewer factors took longer to fully realign (Georgia, Alabama).

Arkansas is a somewhat unique Southern state. There was a small Republican Party in the Northwest, but there was never a booming metropolis attracting Northerners to the state, and it traditionally didn't have a deep divide between conservatives and populists. The state also produced talented, centrist Democratic politicians who have managed to keep a strong coalition together in the state. As a result, Arkansas has the strongest Democratic Party in the South today.

Mike Beebe is squarely in the tradition of these centrist Arkansas Democrats and seems to have largely insulated himself from the general decline in the fortunes of Democratic governors across the country. If things truly go south for the Democrats, though, he could be in trouble.