2010 Illinois Senate - Giannoulias vs. Kirk

10/26/10 -- Although the race remains close, the number of undecideds is steadily dwindling.  Giannoulias needs them to start breaking his way.

10/20/10 -- And now the polls flip back to favoring Kirk by a hair.  This race has kind of flown under the radar screen this cycle, due to Kirk's steady lead; it has probably caused people to forget just how small Kirk's lead really was.  Expect more back-and-forth now that the race seems fully engaged.

10/13/10 -- The polls are now leaning a bit toward Giannoulias.  While this represents Giannoulias' first lead since April, this is still an incredibly tight race.

10/7/10 -- The latest polls are showing undecideds starting to break.  They seem to be doing so mostly evenly, which is a problem for Alexi Giannoulias.  Kirk is clinging to a small lead, even as the pool of voters to convince dwindles.  For now, he retains the edge.

----------Race Preview---------

From the Civil War through the early 20th Century, Illinois consistently voted a few points more Republican than the rest of the country. This changed with the Democrats’ nomination of Al Smith in 1928, which drew white ethnics to the voting booth in droves; they kept voting, and from 1928 through 1976 the state was consistently at the center of American politics. Democrats drew their strength from Chicago, while Republicans dominated downstate and the suburban collar counties.

That changed during the 1990s, when Bill Clinton’s appeal to suburban soccer moms moved the northern suburbs toward the Democrats. Illinois became a solidly Democratic state, to the point where a senator facing serious ethics allegations like Carol Moseley Braun only lost by a few points to Peter Fitzgerald in 1998. Fitzgerald opted not to run for a second term in 2004, and an obscure state Senator named Barack Obama took the seat in a landslide over conservative Republican Alan Keyes. When Obama was elected President, Governor Rod Blagojevich appointed Roland Burris to the seat; Burris also opted not to run.

This set up a top-notch fight between Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias. Kirk’s resume was especially interesting; he had represented the north Chicago suburbs for a decade in Congress, and thus had shown strength in a swing area of the state.

But neither candidate has acquitted themselves particularly well. Giannoulias received a round of negative publicity from the collapse of his family bank, while Kirk was caught exaggerating his military record. By the time this is over, Illinois voters may be wishing there were a “none of these candidates” option, as there is in Nevada.